What About Me?
As you can see, the road to an IPO is a long and complicated one. You may have noticed that individual investors aren't involved until the very end. This is because small investors aren't the target market. They don't have the cash and therefore hold little interest for the underwriters.
If underwriters think an IPO will be successful, they'll usually pad the pockets of their favorite institutional client with shares at the IPO price. The only way for you to get shares (known as an IPO allocation) is to have an account with one of the investment banks that is part of the underwriting syndicate. But don't expect to open an account with $1000 and be showered with an allocation. You need to be a frequently trading client with a large account to get in on a hot IPO.
Bottom line, your chances of getting early shares in an IPO are slim to none unless you're on the inside. If you do get shares, it's probably because nobody else wants them. Granted, there are exceptions to every rule and it would be incorrect for us to say that it's impossible. Just keep in mind that the probability isn't high if you are a small investor.
Things to Consider Before Buying
Let's say you do get in on an IPO. Here are a few things to look out for.
No History
It's hard enough to analyze the stock of an established company. An IPO company is even trickier to analyze since there won't be a lot of historical information. Your main source of data is the red herring, so make sure you examine this document carefully. Look for the usual information, but also pay special attention to the management team and how they plan to use the funds generated from the IPO. And what about the underwriters? Successful IPOs are typically supported by bigger brokerages that have the ability to promote a new issue well. Be more wary of smaller investment banks because they may be willing to underwrite any company.
The Lockup Period
If you look at the charts following many IPOs, you'll notice that after a few months the stock takes a steep downturn. This is often because of the lockup period.
When a company goes public, the underwriters make company officials and employees sign a lockup agreement. Lockup agreements are legally binding contracts between the underwriters and insiders of the company, prohibiting them from selling any shares of stock for a specified period of time. The period can be anything from 3 to 24 months. 90 days is the minimum period stated under Rule 144 (SEC law) but the lockup specified by the underwriters can last much longer. The problem is, when lockups expire all the insiders are permitted to sell their stock. The result is a rush of people trying to sell their stock to realize their profit. This excess supply can put severe downward pressure on the stock price.
Flipping
Flipping is reselling a hot IPO stock in the first few days to earn a quick profit. This isn't easy to do, and you'll be strongly discouraged by your brokerage. The reason behind this is that companies want long-term investors who hold their stock, not traders. There are no laws that prevent flipping, but your broker may blacklist you from future offerings or just smile less when you shake hands. Of course, institutional investors flip stocks all the time and make big money. The double standard exists and there is nothing we can do about it because they have the buying power. Because of flipping, it's a good rule not to buy shares of an IPO if you don't get in on the initial offering. Many IPOs that have big gains on the first day will come back to earth as the institutions take their profits.
Avoid the Hype
It's important to understand that underwriters are salesmen. The whole underwriting process is intentionally hyped up to get as much attention as possible. Since IPOs only happen once for each company, they are often presented as "once in a lifetime" opportunities. Of course, some IPOs soar high and keep soaring. But many end up selling below their offering prices within the year. Don't buy a stock only because it's an IPO - do it because it's a good investment.